Bears looking to seize control below 200-hour SMA, 23.6% Fibo.

  • USD/JPY came under some fresh selling pressure on Thursday and dived to over a one-week low.
  • The downward trajectory confirmed a bearish break below the ascending trend-channel support.
  • A subsequent fall below the 200-hour SMA might have already set the stage for additional losses.

The USD/JPY pair witness aggressive selling near the 134.65-134.70 region on Thursday and extended the previous day’s retracement slide from a 24-year peak. This marked the second successive day of decline and dragged spot prices to a one-and-half-week low, around the 132.30 region during the early part of the European session.

The risk-off impulse – as depicted by a sea of ​​red across the equity markets – boosted demand for the traditional safe-haven assets. This, along with some repositioning trade ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on Friday, forced investors to lighten their bearish bets around the JPY and exerted heavy downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, the sharp intraday decline on Thursday confirmed a breakdown through the lower end of a one-week-old ascending trend channel. Subsequent fall below the 200-hour SMA support, around the 133.75 region, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 126.55-135.60 rally could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders.

That said, a big divergence in the monetary policy decision adopted by the BoJ and the Federal Reserve held back traders from positioning for any deeper losses. Apart from this, the emergence of fresh US dollar buying assisted the USD/JPY pair to quickly rebound around 80-85 pips from the daily low and climb back above the 133.00 mark.

This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 132.30 zone before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has formed a near-term top and positioning for deeper losses. Spot prices might then decline further below the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 132.00 mark, and accelerate the slide towards testing sub-131.00 levels.

On the flip side, recovery back above the 133.40-133.45 region (23.6% Fibo.) might now confront stiff resistance near the 133.75 region (200-hour SMA). This is closely followed by the 134.00 mark and the ascending channel support breakpoint, which should act as a pivotal point and help determine the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair.

Sustaiend strength beyond the aforementioned levels would suggest that the correct fall has run its course and shift the bias back in favor of bullish traders. The USD/JPY pair might then surpass the daily high, around the 134.65-134.70 region, and aim to reclaim the 135.00 psychological mark before climbing further to the 135.45-135.50 supply zone.

USD/JPY 1-hour chart

Key levels to watch

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