Gold Price manages to hold above key support, awaits next catalyst

  • Gold Price is fluctuating in a tight range near $1,850 on Monday.
  • 10-year US T-bond yield stays flat following last week’s rally.
  • Strong near-term support seems to have formed at $1,840.

Gold Price moves sideways near $1,850 at the start of the week following the sharp drop to witness on Friday. Trading conditions remain thin due to the Whit Monday holiday in Europe. The US economic docket will not be offering any high-impact data releases and XAUUSD is likely to continue to fluctuate between key technical levels.

Rising US yields limit gold’s upside

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 390,000 in May, surpassing the market expectation for an increase of 325,000. Further details of the report showed that the Labor Force Participation Rate improved modestly to 62.3% and the annual wage inflation edged lower to 5.2% as expected. The US Treasury bond yields shot higher on the upbeat US jobs report and forced gold to erase its weekly gains. The benchmark 10-year yield rose more than 7% last week and snapped a three-week losing streak. At the time of press, the 10-year yield was moving up and down in a narrow channel near 2.95%.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD has room to recover before the next downswing kicks in.

Gold Price could react to ECB, US inflation data

Later in the week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged. The bank is set to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points in July with the Asset Purchase Program (APP) coming to an end in July. According to Bloomberg, some policymakers want ECB President Christine Lagarde to deliver a convincing message that borrowing costs of vulnerable countries will be contained and fragmentation will not be allowed. A strong reaction in XAUEUR to ECB’s policy announcements could impact XAUUSD’s movements in the second half of the week.

The most important data release of the week will be the May inflation report from the US on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core CPI are forecast to decline to 8.2% and 5.9%, respectively, on a yearly basis. With the NFP data confirming that labor market conditions remain tight in the US, stronger-than-expected CPI figures are likely to trigger another leg higher in US yields and make it difficult for gold to find demand. On the other hand, a retreat in consumer inflation could cause investors to start pricing in a pause in Fed rate hikes in September and help XAUUSD push higher.

Chart illustrating rising inflation

Ahead of the above-mentioned key events, XAUUSD could have a hard time making a decisive move in either direction. The market mood seems to have turned upbeat at the beginning of the week. In case risk flows continue to dominate the markets, the dollar could lose interest and help gold hold its ground. In that scenario, however, US yields could gain traction and not allow gold to turn north.

Gold Price technical outlook

Gold Price seems to have gone into a consolidation phase on Monday with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart extending its sideways grind near 50. The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend forms transition support at $1,850. If this level turns into resistance, XAUUSD could decline toward $1,840, where the 200-day SMA is located. A daily close below that level could be seen as a significant bearish development and open the door for additional losses.

On the upside, $1,875 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) aligns as first resistance ahead of the $1,890/$1,900 area (100-day SMA, 50-day SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement) and $1,915 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) afterwards.

Until a fundamental catalyst triggers a strong market reaction, it wouldn’t be surprising to see XAUUSD continue to fluctuate in the $1,875-$1,840 range.

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