Swiss Franc Faces Contrasting Fates Against US Dollar and Euro. Where to for CHF?

Swiss Franc, ER/CHF, Euro, USD/CHF, US Dollar, SNB, ECB, Fed- Talking Points

  • EUR/CHF might have momentum, but the ECB could change that
  • The US Dollar has rallied across the board, lifting USD/CHF
  • The Franc has mixed fortunes. If the ECB hikes, will it boost EUR/CHF?

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF put in Double Tops at the same time with highs in mid-May and mid-June in both currency pairs.

Since then, EUR/CHF has continued lower, but USD/CHF has found a base and might be charging back toward those peaks. The disparity in price action might be attributable to the differences in monetary policies from the relative central banks.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets with a 50-basis point hike last month. Keen observers of SNB President Thomas may have picked up some prior hints.

The SNB don’t mind keeping markets on their toys. It has a history of unconventional changes to policy. They infamously abandoned the capping of the rising Franc in 2015 that saw EUR/CHF go from 1.2000 to 0.8600 in a matter of moments. It then recovered back above parity, where it has mostly been ever since.

The SNB meets quarterly to make decisions on monetary policy and its next gathering is in September. The central bank does have scope within its mandate to meet between meetings if conditions warrant it.

Later this month both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will make their decisions on policy.

The Fed is expected to continue tightening while the ECB is widely anticipated to make the first step to reining in loose policy. This might change the picture for EUR/CHF and USD/CHF disparity.

EUR/CHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/CHF made a fresh 7-year low at 0.9836 last session after moving under prior lows and parity as bearish momentum appears to have picked up steam.

After such a move, it is not surprising that all Simple Moving Averages (SMA) display a negative gradient. Additionally, the 55-day SMA has just crossed below the 100-day SMA to make a Death Cross. This might suggest further bearishness could unfold.

Support may lie at the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension at 0.9638.

Chart created in TradingView

USD/CHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/CHF has bounced off last month’s low of 0.9495 and moved above several Simple Moving Averages (SMA) but they have positive and negative gradients. This may suggest a range trading environment.

Support could be at the break points of 0.9710, 0.9545 and 0.9460 or the low of 0.9495. On the topside, resistance might be at the twins peaks of 1.0050 and 1.0064.

USDCHF CHART

Chart created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter

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