US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Extra consolidation looks likely

  • DXY extends the consolidative phase above the 104.00 mark.
  • The breakdown of this theme exposes 103.40.

DXY fades Thursday’s advance and trades with modest losses at the end of the week, always within the broad side-lined theme above 104.00.

Ideally, the index should surpass the weekly high near 105.00 (June 22) in the near term to allow for the recovery to gather momentum and attempt a visit to the nearly 20-year peak in the 105.80 zone (June 15). On the flip side, a breach of the lower bound of the range carries the potential to force the index to challenge the weekly low at 103.42 (June 16).

As long as the 4-month line above 102.00 holds the downside, the near-term outlook for the index should remain constructive.

Looking at the longer run, the outlook for the dollar is seen bullish while above the 200-day SMA at 97.85.

DXY daily chart

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